Archive for the ‘non-sequitur’ Category

Don’t Feed the Monster

Sunday, December 2nd, 2007

With the Daily Show off the air, it looks like it’s replacement has already surfaced on youtube, under the name newsbusted. It’s a bit raw, like early Craig Kilborn days, no guests as of yet, and a different bias, but the foundation is there.

Which got me thinking about the writer’s strike.

I haven’t paid too much attention to it (I’m not a writer), but Khayman sent me a post about it, “Strike by Suicide“, from Marc Andreessen of all people.

Marc’s fundamental point seems to be, given the uncertainty of the “new media” — the Internet as entertainment, is this a good time for Old Media executives to pick a fight with the writers about Internet residuals?

It seems both parties are deathly scared of the Internet — it’s eating their existing source of revenue & everyone is now scrambling to get a proverbial piece of the new pie.

But here’s the thing — it’s not writers vs. Old Media. That’s because writers are part of the Old Media.

Hollywood writers are far from the starving-artist, slaving for their art form (and, btw, who the hell considers “Two and a Half Men” an art form?)

With $500,000+ salaries, the question really is: is this a good time for the bourgeoisie writers to revolt against the aristocrat producers?

The last writer strike helped accelerate things into the direction of unscripted television.

There’s already a trend shifting entertainment away from TV. World of Warcraft players find the 20+ average hours per week to spend on it, by simply watching 20+ hours less of television. Most people I know spend more time dorking around on YouTube, following blogs of choice, and so on, with the trend getting larger & broader.

Given the lack of programming, making TV less of an option, you have to wonder if the internal Old Media feuding will hasten people exploring online forms of entertainment, and only help feed the Internet beast they’re worried of destroying them.

Is Being in the Military America’s Most Dangerous Job?

Saturday, August 11th, 2007

Catching up on the news, I came across an article on CNN about America’s most dangerous jobs. A few paragraphs, the author, Les Christie, makes the following statement:

The BLS [Bureau of Labor Statistics] does not count combat deaths in its survey; if it did, the military would undoubtedly have qualified as America’s most dangerous job last year.

It’s a little surprising Mr. Christie would make that kind of statement and not provide us with any data. Granted the BLS doesn’t count combat deaths, but given how readily available that information is, it’s surprising Mr. Christie doesn’t assemble it himself.

So, I was curious. Was the military the most dangerous job? If so, how did it compare to fisherman, who did take the top at 118.4 deaths per 100,000?

First step was to find out the size of military. According to Wikipedia, the U.S. has the 2nd highest level active troops, at 1,426,710. (Note that China has just under a million more, at 2,255,000.)

Based on icasualties.org, which uses DoD data, there were 846 U.S. fatalities.

( 846 / 1,426,710 ) * 100,000 = 59.3 deaths per 100,000.

If my math is correct, that would place 4th in the Bureau’s list.

OccupationDeaths per 100,000
Fishers and fishing workers118.4
Logging workers92.9
Aircraft pilots66.9
U.S. Military59.3
Structural iron and steel workers55.6

Dinosaurs Per Gallon

Wednesday, November 29th, 2006

It’s good to know that my Jeep gets 6,900 to 7,820 miles per T. Rex.

Pluto & Rabbits

Saturday, August 26th, 2006

Okay, so Pluto is no longer a planet. The reason why is

The scientists agreed that to be called a planet, a celestial body must be in orbit around a star while not itself being a star.

It also must be large enough in mass for its own gravity to pull it into a nearly spherical shape and have cleared the neighbourhood around its orbit.

Pluto was disqualified because its oblong orbit overlaps with Neptune’s.

Okay, so Pluto is not a planet because it hasn’t cleared its orbit of Neptune. I get that.

What I don’t get is, if that’s the criteria, and Neptune hasn’t cleared Pluto of its orbit, why is Neptune still a planet?

Something else I wonder: If I had never lived with Neb & Misa, would I have liked this video as much? (Hat tip to Jeremy.)

A Skeptical Look at Global Warming: Part II: After the Movie

Tuesday, July 18th, 2006

Well, the movie wasn’t what I expected. I think I was hasher on it initially because of that. What I had expected was a scientific documentary, perhaps something like an episode of Nova, considering the case for global warming.

Walking out the theatre in that mindset, I had a general sense of disappointment. There was wide mix of evidence offered. Some I really liked, including how the movie starts off showing a graph of CO2 levels & temperatures for the last 650,000 years. But it also dips into anecdotal — nobody remembers polar bears drowning before. Remembers? And I’m still not sure how global warning caused ebola?

However, if you dismiss how the movie is marketed, take a step back, and think about what the movie is and the motivations for creating it — i.e., an attempt to rebuild Gore’s political career and rally like minded people to a cause it makes sense & a lot of my criticisms fade away.

In fact, to that end it does a good job. Al Gore certainly comes across better than he did in his prior political runs. We learn about how he was a simple farmboy, we see pictures of him w/ his first cow, the bitter irony of growing tobacco that would later claims his mom’s life, how the loss of the 2000 election hurt him, but from where he decided to give his slide show again. I could see a lot of people on the left walking out of the movie really liking Al Gore.

Still, I have three major complaints: his heavy usage of emotional transference, the vilification of those with dissenting views, and his coverage of solutions.

If you watch, you see a lot of pleasant images & sounds accompanied or followed by positive assertions and negative imagines mixed in or followed by causes of global warming or those who disagree. E.g., see the evil tobacco lobby? Remember how we hate them? Now project those feelings onto those against global warming. The feeling you get of standing on a riverbank & looking at lush green trees? Associate that with Al Gore.

This also fits with the vilification of those unconvinced of global warming. Again, I personally believe it happens, but it’s a far cry from being absolute certain and there’s still the open question of what it means. In general, challenges to an idea are good. If it either strengthens the theory (if it’s true) or it helps us understand where we might have gotten things wrong. It furthers our understanding.

Painting doubt & debate as evil is distasteful. I’m not particularly found of when religions do it, so I’m not going to embrace it here either. It taints the conversation & debate. Put another way, what would you make of someone painting the dissenters in the asteroid/dinosaur debate as evil?

Past the various montages of Al Gore’s life, my interested piqued again at the end of the film, as he starts to discuss solutions. However, much like a Little Jon “What!”, it doesn’t really go anywhere. In just a few seconds, a few solutions are mentioned with a percent, and told that if we add them up, we’ve solved the problem by getting back to 1970s level & that’s about it. No discussion about them or their impacts. How feasible is each? What’s the economic impact? How could they be realistically implemented? None of that’s discussed. The whole bit is probably less than a minute — he spent more time talking about the 2000 election than that!

(And does getting to the 1970s really solve the problem? That seems to be the implication, but if I recall correctly, even by 1970 CO2 levels where way too high?)

So all in all, was it a good film? It depends. If it was to rebuild Al Gore’s image, then yes. If it was to further the cause of global warming, then no. The science in was surprisingly lacking. I remember recently an AP article where several climatologist said the science was accurate, but then it would be like saying the science in Twister or Star Trek was accurate too. There just isn’t much in any.

Given the test “would it change anyone’s mind on global warming after seeing it?”, I’d answer probably not. It didn’t really change mine . Some people clapped at the end and one guy yelled “fuck yeah!”, but I’d be surprised if they didn’t already have a strong belief in global warming.

In a lot of ways, it would be like watching a highlight film of the Chicago Bears — I’d walk out having seen proof that they’re the greatest team on the planet, and think you’re an idiot if you didn’t draw the same conclusion for not having seen the same thing. (Which you are if you’re a Packer’s fan.)

So, at the end of the movie I’m still left where I started, with a lukewarm belief in an idea and not much supporting evidence that I personally know of & have strong faith in. At the very least, I’m motivated to learn more. If attributable to the movie, that’s certainly a positive.

For next steps, I think I’m going to try to find more information about a few things. First, the ice core samples & past cycles of the earth cooling warming. That data seemed interesting & it’s really the only thing that seems to have an adequate data set to make anything logical out of.

Second, falsible hypotheses. That is, theories that can cut either way — showing global warming does & doesn’t occur. E.g., you can’t point the record high temperatures as evidence of global warming if you refuse to go the other way should they not occur. Third, I’m curious about climinatology as a whole. Al Gore mentioned the sample of peer-reviewed articles — I’d be curious the accuracy of forecasts & predictions.

Again, what I find I’ll try to post.

A Skeptical Look at Global Warming

Sunday, July 9th, 2006

Despite living in California, I only have a basic, mainstream understanding of global warming. My knowledge is more or less limited to what I learned in high school earth science, casual conversations with friends (generally those of the green persuasian), and what I’ve read in the newspapers, magazines, etc.

A few people I know (both locally & in the blogsphere), have mentioned they really liked Al Gore’s An Inconvient Truth, and thought it did a great job explaining global warming & the dangers it presented.

I thought it would be an interesting excerise to write down my thoughts & opinions prior to seeing the film, and then seeing how, if at all, they changed afterwards.

So, before seeing it, here are my biases. Note that some of these could be (and probably are) wrong. Again, they’re not really backed by fact — they’re more or less vague impressions at best.

  • Al Gore is a jackass.

    His 1988 run for the presidential nomination (against Jesse Jackson) showed he’s something of racist, he’s not very charismatic, and people around him have describe him as not very intelligent. In short, he seems to be the Democratic response to George Bush.

    Harboring a mild dislike of Bush, I’m not inclined to like Gore much either.

    Still, that doesn’t mean whatever Gore says is automatically wrong. As Robert Pirsig said, “Just because a fool says it’s raining outside, doesn’t mean that it isn’t”, so I’ll try to keep an open mind to what is being said and less who is saying it.

  • The discussion on global warming is filled with ulterior motives.

    Obviously, it wouldn’t surprise me if a Exxon sponsored a study that showed global warming wasn’t happening. Same for car manufactures, coal mines, or any other enterprise which currently profits and in some way contributes to pumping CO2 into the atmosphere.

    But that doesn’t mean that they’re alone. If Ralph Nader came out with a study showing global warming is happening, I wouldn’t be surprised either, as he’s not going to get elected if people think it’s not a big deal.

    Likewse, if you hate Bush, Republicans, Big Business, Capitalism, the American Way of life, and you believe global warming runs counter to any of them, there’s incentive to find yourself supporting global warming.

    There’s two other additional motivations that aren’t tied to personal gain: 1) There’s something in people that tends to attract them to the idea they’re living in the end times. It doesn’t matter if it’s people reading Left Behind, screaming we’ll all going to die in a nuclear holocaust, a Branch Davidian, or we’re going to die of global warming. Some people are attracted to the ideas regardless of the evidence behind them.

    2) People like to feel they’re part of an elite group. What defines the creed of that elite group can vary — it could be a belief in God (a la those trying to ban gay marriage or flying planes into buildings), it could be a belief in a race (a la the Nazis), or it could be how you treat the environment (a la Greenpeace & Ralph Nader).

  • The science of global warming is heavily politicized.

    One thing I like about science over politics, is that while politics attempts to hide facts that don’t support an idea, science dictates that they be brought forward. It isn’t uncommon to hear about evidence that doesn’t support a prevailing theory. You readily hear from most scientists about how there is a inherent contradiction between quantum mechanics & the theory of relativity. When Andrew Wiles’ first iteration of his proof of Fermat’s Last Theorm was found to contain a flaw, Wiles didn’t simply dismiss them as someone who didn’t want to believe in the theorem. However, this does seem to happen with global warming.

    To hear those advocating its existence, the science behind global warming has long been overwhelming and proven without a shadow of the doubt.

    In the Economist a few months back, an article ran where one of the final global warming pieces of the puzzle had fallen into place. In a nutshell, since the 70s, data from weather balloons & satellites have indicated that the temperature of the troposphere has been stable. This was particularly confusing to climatologists, as global warming theory would indicate its temperature should increase in conjunction with the Earth’s surface temperature, but that was not the case.

    The final piece of the puzzle was how this could be, but the first question in my head was why is this the first time it’s being mentioned. A fair & open discussion about a theory is going to include evidence in support and against it, yet this was hardly mentioned until it could be dismissed and, even with the hole, the theory had been called rock solid.

  • The Earth is very old and goes through cyclical temperature changes.

    Most of what I’ve read seems to look at a very, very narrow time period compared to the age of the earth. It also seems to ignore or not address how it fits in with other periods of cooling & warming the Earth has gone through in the past, both with man & without.

    This could, however, simply be a limitation of what I’ve been exposed to. I had dinner with a friend bit back, just after he had finished his first year of grad school in atmospheric sciences. He mentioned some interesting facts on how they could look at historical temperature and carbon levels with ice cores (and showed an exponential upswing in the CO2 levels in the last 50 years or so), but didn’t know much as to any environmental theory behind temperature swings on the order of the ice ages. Again, it doesn’t mean it’s not there, just I’m not aware of it.

  • The scientific method requires repeatability.

    In a letter to the editor of my alumni magazine, a group biologist responded to an article about Intelligent Design, declaring it couldn’t be called science because it lacked several aspects of traditional established scientific practices, notably repeatability. That is, there is no experiment you could give asserting intelligent design that someone else could do to assert the theory is correct.

    Weather is an incredibly complex, chaotic system. (Think of this, with all our technology, we can’t say for certain if it’s going to rain even a month from today or not.) It seems very challenging, if not impossible, to put forth a theory on global warming that others would be able to independently execute and validate. After all, we’ve only got one Earth.

  • I’m Conservative

    Others may think this will skew thing a great deal, but I doubt much, if any, impact. After all, Teddy Roosevelt was both a conservative and a conservationist.

    Despite all that, however, probably my biggest bias is:

  • Global warming probably does happen and it probably is caused by man.

    I lean towards thinking global warming is happening & it’s due to pollution from mankind. Asked to prove it, or convince someone else, I doubt I could. My reasons are shaky at best.

    So why am I leaning that way? A few reasons, none of them terribly scientific:

    • Most people I know seem to believe it.
    • It jives up with what I learned in high school & greenhouse gases.
    • People I know personally, respect & who are better educated on the matter, believe it. That really boils down to a handful of people: the previously mentioned buddy in grad school, and Brandon, or more directly, Brandon’s dad, who’s worked with the environment for the federal government his whole life.

    And with that, I’m off to see the movie. I’ll post my impressions afterwards, in the mean time, if you have any links that you think would be good to read afters — either for or against global warming — feel free to post them below. I’ll try to read whatever people send my way & post my impression. (Brandon’s already given me a half dozen or so. :-)

  • The Father of a Boy Named Sue

    Friday, June 9th, 2006

    Since before becoming a Johnny Cash fan, I’d know that one my favorite childhood authors, Shel Silverstein, was the one who penned A Boy Named Sue.

    What I didn’t know was that Shel followed it up The Father of a Boy Named Sue.

    Amusing, but not as good as the original. And those last few lines are… odd.

    Puny Human

    Wednesday, May 31st, 2006

    Benching 345 & leg pressing just over 600[1], I used to think that was respectable. That was, of course, until this asshole curled 300 pounds and Pat Robertson leg pressed leg pressed 2,000 pounds.

    [1] Of course, being from 5-10 years ago, there’s not a chance in hell I could that now.

    Follow the White Rabbit

    Sunday, May 21st, 2006

    Things like this always give me the feeling like I’m in the Matrix.

    I’m Glad I Offer Some Value

    Tuesday, May 16th, 2006
    ld: man i can waste a lot of time surfing yahoo 360
    ld: i play a game
    ld: six degress of porn
    ld: i can go from me to you to
    ld: a few other people then I am looking at some chicks naked pictures of herself
    ld: you are the catalyst
    ld: none of my other yahoo 360 friends have paid off
    ld: you know people who know people who take naked pictures of themselves
    ld: and then put them on line
    ld: it is crazy
    ld: and very interesting
    ld: trannies and the like are kinda like whammies
    ld: no whammies no whammies
    ld: big money bog money
    ld: it is a fun game
    ld: a lot of bs profiles are used to advertise pay for porn sites
    ld: but some are no shit
    ld: they are chicks with dumb ass blogs about blah blah blah
    ld: and naked pictures
    ld: gotta go
    ld: ttyl